The Swiss franc has soared nearly 9% against the U.S. dollar this month — its largest monthly gain since 2008 — prompting speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may soon intervene to cool the rally.
The currency, seen as a safe haven, is surging on uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and fears of a recession, especially as President Trump’s tariff threats weigh on global markets. The franc also rose 2.6% against the euro, nearing its highest level in over a decade.
Swiss industry leaders warn the sharp rise is damaging exports, which could face 31% U.S. tariffs, and threatening the SNB’s 0–2% inflation target by making imports cheaper.
“The rise of the Swiss franc is the final ingredient for a poisonous cocktail for Swiss industry,” said Jean-Philippe Kohl of Swissmem, the country’s industry association.
Analysts suggest currency interventions are more likely than rate cuts, given that the SNB’s key rate is already at 0.25%. Selling francs could weaken the currency, though such moves risk political fallout — including a possible currency manipulator label from the U.S.
With 57% of Swiss imports invoiced in euros, the SNB is likely closely monitoring the franc’s strength against the euro, which heavily influences inflation.
Markets now watch for signs of a “threshold moment” that could push the SNB into action.