South African stocks have outpaced other emerging markets, with Johannesburg’s main equity index rising about 7% in 2024, compared to a 4.6% gain for MSCI Inc.’s emerging-market gauge. However, challenges loom for the country’s key mining sector, driven by weaker demand from China, the top buyer of South Africa’s industrial metals.
Iron ore prices hit their lowest in nearly two years due to China’s ongoing property market crisis. Seven of the 10 worst-performing Johannesburg stocks this year are mining companies, with Kumba Iron Ore Ltd. from Anglo American Plc slumping 46%.
Analysts like Tana Mongwe from Old Mutual expect mining stocks to face short-term pain until China fully recovers. Broader South African markets have been buoyed by optimism from the May elections and hopes of lower interest rates, pushing the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index to new highs.
Yet, while mining stocks struggle, domestic sectors such as construction, property, retail, and banking are seeing growth, driven by an improving political landscape and potential interest rate cuts.