The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its projection for global oil demand, forecasting an increase of 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, consistent with the previous month’s outlook. In its latest monthly report, OPEC also anticipates a growth of 1.85 million bpd in 2025. This growth is attributed to strong demands in markets such as China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America, driven by robust air travel, road mobility, including trucking, and increased industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries. Additionally, expansions in petrochemical capacity, particularly in China and the Middle East, are expected to contribute to the rising oil demand.
Despite acknowledging uncertainties related to global economic developments, OPEC remains optimistic, suggesting continued economic growth with an expected increase in oil demand by 2.3 million bpd in the second half of 2024. The services sector, especially travel and tourism, is projected to be a primary driver of economic growth in the latter part of the year, further supporting oil demand. The report maintains a global economic growth forecast of 2.8 percent for 2024 and 2.9 percent for 2025. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais expressed confidence in the sector’s growth, emphasizing the resilience of oil demand and the accuracy of OPEC’s forecasts. Al-Ghais highlighted OPEC’s focus on market fundamentals, including economic growth, supply, and demand, reinforcing the organization’s optimistic outlook on the oil market’s future.