The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has upheld its optimistic outlook for global oil demand, asserting a steady trajectory for 2024 and forecasting a robust surge in 2025. In its latest monthly report, OPEC predicts a 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) increase in oil demand for 2024, remaining consistent with the previous month’s projection. Breaking from tradition, the report introduces a forward-looking stance for 2025, anticipating an even more substantial rise of 1.85 million bpd, with China and the Middle East at the forefront. OPEC’s decision to release this long-term forecast ahead of schedule is aimed at offering extended guidance to the market and fostering a deeper understanding of evolving market dynamics.
Despite ongoing output cuts within the wider OPEC+ alliance, OPEC reported a slight uptick in oil production in December, driven primarily by Nigeria. The report also adjusted production figures to account for Angola’s exit from the group, as announced by Luanda last month. On the supply side, OPEC forecasts non-OPEC liquids production to grow by 1.3 million bpd in 2024, reaching an average of 70.4 million bpd. Notably, the main drivers of this growth are expected to be the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway, and Kazakhstan. With US shale basins contributing almost half of the expected non-OPEC liquids supply growth, offshore projects, particularly in Latin America, are poised to significantly bolster production throughout the year.