The International Energy Agency (IEA) has held its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 steady at 970,000 barrels per day (bpd), citing the end of China’s post-COVID economic rebound. However, the IEA has lowered its 2025 forecast from 980,000 bpd to 950,000 bpd.
The IEA noted that supply cuts by OPEC+ are tightening the global market. Since 2020, OPEC+ has implemented deep supply cuts to stabilize the market, currently reducing output by 5.86 million bpd, or 5.7% of global demand. While the alliance agreed to extend most cuts through 2024, they plan to phase them out in 2025.
The IEA highlighted a shift in global oil demand drivers, particularly in China, where demand contracted for a third consecutive month in June. Despite this, global oil demand increased by 870,000 bpd in Q2 2024.