May 6, 2025

Gulf Non-Oil Growth to Offset OPEC+ Cuts, IMF Says ๐Ÿ“Š

GCC economies are set to grow despite prolonged oil output cuts, thanks to strong non-oil sector expansion, according to the IMF.

๐Ÿ”น Key Forecasts:

  • GCC GDP projected to grow 3% in 2025, 4.1% by 2028
  • Saudi Arabia: 3% (2025), 3.7% (2026)
  • UAE: 4% (2025), 5% (2026) โ€” highest in the GCC

๐Ÿ”น Diversification Pays Off:

โ€œRobust non-oil activity helped to offset the negative impact of extended OPEC+ cuts,โ€ said IMFโ€™s Jihad Azour.

๐Ÿ”น Oil Production & Inflation:

  • OPEC+ has cut 5.85M barrels/day since 2022
  • Inflation remains within target across most countries

๐Ÿ”น Risks Ahead:

  • Global uncertainty, trade tensions, and climate shocks could slow growth
  • IMF warns of 4.5% output loss if current volatility persists

๐Ÿ”น Policy Priorities:
Azour calls for:

  • Strengthened fiscal & monetary frameworks
  • Structural reforms & private sector development
  • Strategic trade corridors and resilience planning
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