Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its oil price forecast, projecting Brent crude to average $64 per barrel in Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026. However, the investment bank cautioned that growing geopolitical tensions may alter these expectations.
In a note dated August 3, Goldman highlighted upside risks tied to increased pressure on sanctioned oil supplies from Russia and Iran, especially amid the rapid normalization of global spare capacity.
At the same time, the bank warned of downside risks to its projected 800,000 barrels-per-day annual demand growth in 2025–2026. This is due to rising U.S. tariff rates, the potential for secondary tariffs, and signs of economic slowdown. Goldman economists now see a higher risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced on Sunday a 547,000 barrels-per-day output hike for September, aiming to recapture market share. Despite this, Goldman expects no further production increases beyond September, citing building OECD stockpiles and waning seasonal demand.
Brent crude traded at $69.27 a barrel early Monday, while U.S. WTI was at $66.96.
Goldman also downplayed fears of major Russian supply disruptions, noting continued imports by key buyers China and India, despite narrowing discounts and recent U.S. pressure.