Gold prices may climb to $4,000 an ounce by the end of 2026, driven by expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening US dollar, and continued central bank gold buying, according to Fidelity International.
Ian Samson, a multi-asset fund manager at Fidelity, said the firm remains bullish, recently increasing gold exposure in cross-asset portfolios after prices dipped from April’s record above $3,500.
“The path toward a more dovish Fed became clearer,” Samson said, noting that some funds have doubled their gold allocation from 5% over the past year. August’s typically soft market performance also encouraged more diversification, he added.
Gold has risen over 25% this year, fueled by global tensions, Trump’s trade policies, and aggressive central bank purchases. Still, prices have traded in a tight range recently as US trade talk progress cooled fears of a worst-case global slowdown.
Even with easing doomsday concerns, Samson pointed to Trump’s 15% tariffs on 11% of US imports, warning it’s a “decent tax hike” likely to slow the economy.
Fidelity’s outlook aligns with Goldman Sachs, which also sees potential for gold to reach $4,000. Others, like Citigroup, are more cautious.
The Fed meets this week, with no policy change expected, though officials like Waller and Bowman may push for support amid labor market weakness. Samson noted that a softer dollar and potential leadership change at the Fed could further support gold, especially with US deficits rising.