The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is set to increase by 80% by 2030, driven by new projects in Qatar and North America, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis. This surge is expected to end the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The report highlights a projected rise in LNG investments by over 50% by 2029, with the US dominating future supply. Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs’ head of natural resources research in EMEA, noted that this growth would lower natural gas prices in Europe and Asia. QatarEnergy’s agreements with Excelerate Energy and Petronet, and the North Field expansion, will significantly boost LNG production.
Goldman Sachs also pointed out the ongoing transformation in the oil and gas industry as it shifts from crude oil to natural gas due to declining crude demand. Capital expenditure in the sector grew at about 11% annually from 2020 to 2023 but is expected to slow to 4% annually from 2023 to 2026. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is likely to maintain current production discipline, potentially increasing its market share as non-OPEC production peaks and declines. This adjustment aims to stabilize the market and ensure attractive returns for oil companies.