Global bond sales are expected to rise by 17% this year, reaching approximately $9 trillion, according to a revised estimate by S&P Global Ratings. The momentum from the third quarter is anticipated to continue, driving this growth. However, bond issuance is projected to slow to a 4% increase in 2025 due to a high base of comparison and slower economic growth.
S&P’s credit research analysts, including Nick Kraemer, noted that lower interest rates in 2025 could spur more mergers and acquisitions and drive debt demand, despite modest cuts from central banks. The bond market has remained strong this year, even with elevated rates and geopolitical tensions.
September saw a record-breaking $600 billion in bond sales, with over 1,226 issuers participating, marking the most active month in over two decades. Earlier, S&P had predicted a 9% increase in bond sales for 2024, but the robust third-quarter performance led to an upward revision.
Several factors, including upcoming debt maturities, China’s growth initiatives, and increased investments in artificial intelligence, could further boost global bond issuance in the coming years. However, potential risks to the 2025 forecast include global trade disruptions, which could impact inflation and affect central banks’ plans for rate cuts.