August 18, 2025

Futures Tick Up as Rate-Cut Hopes Lift Market Mood 📈

U.S. stock futures nudged higher Sunday evening, extending last week’s optimism on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Dow Jones futures rose about 0.09%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures added roughly 0.11% and 0.18%, respectively.

The move follows a second straight winning week: the Dow advanced 1.7%, with the S&P 500 up 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.8%. Small caps led, jumping more than 3% as traders leaned into the rate-cut narrative.

Broadening strength was evident, too. Baird’s Ross Mayfield noted the S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary index hit a record high—suggesting tariff worries and fears of a faltering U.S. consumer may be overstated.

All eyes now turn to Jackson Hole, where Fed officials gather this week for their annual policy symposium. Futures tied to the fed funds rate imply nearly an 85% chance of a September cut. Earnings remain another catalyst, with Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart, and Target set to report as season winds down. Thus far, about 92% of S&P 500 companies have posted results, and nearly 82% have topped expectations, per FactSet.

Investors will parse policy signals and retail updates for confirmation that the soft-landing script remains intact.

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