Sunday’s Euro 2024 final between England and Spain and the Copa America showdown between Argentina and Colombia promise tight contests. Historical data suggests that the winning nation’s stock market often outperforms.
Greece, Spain, and Italy’s stock markets have outperformed the STOXX 600 after their Euro victories. Greece’s market surged by 20% following their 2004 win. Spain’s IBEX outperformed during the global financial crisis and the eurozone debt crisis. Italy’s FTSE MIB also outperformed after their last victory.
World Cup wins boost GDP growth by 0.25 percentage points, according to a study by the University of Surrey. Argentina’s stock market surged after their 2021 Copa win, and Brazil’s market rose 9% after their 2019 win.
However, currencies don’t fare as well. The pound typically falls during major tournaments but has gained 1.1% this time. Will this trend continue for England in Berlin?