October 20, 2025

China’s Economy Grows 4.8% in Q3 Despite Real Estate Slump 🇨🇳

China’s economy expanded 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, matching analyst expectations despite persistent weakness in its property sector.

Fixed-asset investment — which includes infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate — contracted 0.5% in the first nine months, compared with forecasts of a slight gain. Property investment dropped 13.9% year-on-year through September, extending its decline from earlier in the year.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, called the contraction “rare and alarming,” warning that China’s fourth-quarter GDP may face further pressure. The last such decline in fixed-asset investment occurred in 2020, during the pandemic.

Retail sales grew 3% in September, meeting expectations but slowing from 3.4% in August, while industrial production rose a stronger-than-expected 6.5%, up from 5.2% a month earlier.

Meanwhile, exports showed resilience despite ongoing U.S. tensions, and core inflation climbed at its fastest pace since early 2024. However, headline inflation slipped 0.3%, signaling continued deflationary pressures.Earlier Monday, the People’s Bank of China held its benchmark lending rates steady for the sixth consecutive month — with the one-year loan prime rate at 3% and the five-year rate at 3.5% — as policymakers balance growth support with financial stability.

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